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Following Munetaka Murakami’s move, Yomiuri Giants slugger Kazuma Okamoto (29) is finally heading to MLB via the posting system.
Official posting date: Nov. 20, negotiation window: Nov. 21 – Jan. 4.
His agent is none other than Scott Boras, and multiple MLB clubs are already circling.

This article breaks down his MLB projection, contract expectations, best landing spots, and his actual odds of succeeding in the majors.

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1｜Player Profile & MLB Translation: Does Okamoto’s Contact + Pull Power Play in the Majors?

◆ Rock-solid offensive consistency

• NPB career: .277 / 248 HR / 717 RBI / .882 OPS
• Injured elbow limited him to 69 games in 2025, but he still hit .327 with a 1.014 OPS
• Homered off Team USA in the 2023 WBC → boosted his MLB credibility
• Career strikeout rate: 17.7% (2025: a ridiculous 11.3%)

→ Many scouts project him as an “around .800 OPS” bat in MLB.

◆ Strengths: Above-average contact skills & plate discipline

• Strong strike-zone judgment → .361 OBP
• FanGraphs’ Longenhagen:
  “Higher floor than Murakami. His pull-side power translates well.”

◆ Weaknesses: How he handles MLB-level velocity

• Results drop against 94+ mph, MLB’s average fastball is 94.4 mph
• K% projected to rise into the 20% range
• Defense: solid at 1B, below-average at 3B → likely 1B/DH

Projected WAR: 2.5–3.5 (roughly Vlad Jr. to Josh Naylor range)

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2｜Contract Projection: Most Realistic Range is “4 Years, –78M”—with Boras Upside to M

Boras is expected to push for shorter terms with high AAV, a strategy that suits Okamoto’s age and upside.

If Okamoto signs for 4 years and $64M, total cost with posting fee reaches ~$75.5M.

A thin slugger market this winter also pushes his value upward.

▼ Major Media Predictions (as of Nov. 22)

• MLBTR: 4 yrs / $64M
• The Athletic (Law): 4 yrs / $78.5M
• FanGraphs: 4 yrs / $70M
• Bleacher Report: 3–4 yrs / $50M+
• Nikkansports (US sources): 4 yrs / $90M
• Lookout Landing: 5 yrs / $100M (optimistic)

→ Realistic: “4 years, $64–78M.”
Low-end: ~$50M.
High-end with Boras magic: ~$90M.

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3｜Best MLB Landing Spots: Mets & Yankees Lead, with Pirates/Tigers as True Dark Horses

His defensive fit is 1B/3B, and several teams badly need corner power.

◎ 1. New York Mets (30%)

• Pete Alonso may walk → need right-handed power
• Soto anchors the left side → Okamoto is a perfect right-handed complement
• Projection: 4 yrs / $78M

◎ 2. New York Yankees (25%)

• Could replace Goldschmidt
• Judge + Okamoto = a strong right-handed core
• Projection: 4 yrs / $70M

○ 3. Chicago Cubs (15%)

• Natural pairing with Seiya Suzuki
• 3B/1B always an area of need
• Projection: 4 yrs / $65M

○ 4. Boston Red Sox (10%)

• Casas’ injury opens a 1B/DH hole
• Local media are high on Okamoto
• Projection: 4 yrs / $70M

▲ 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (10%)

• Hayes trade leaves a huge need at 3B
• MLBTR’s predicted destination
• Projection: 4 yrs / $64M

▲ 6. Detroit Tigers (5%)

• Need more corner offense
• GM Harris openly wants “more impact bats”
• Projection: 4 yrs / $78.5M

△ 7. Los Angeles Angels (5%)

• Fit stylistically with their emphasis on power
• Projection: 3 yrs / $60M

△ 8. Seattle Mariners (low)

• Fan circles dream of a $100M deal
• But front-office aggressiveness is uncertain

→ Overall, the New York teams lead the race,
while Pirates/Tigers remain legitimate Boras-fueled surprises.

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4｜Impact on NPB: A Major Loss for the Giants & A Growing Trend of Hitters Leaving for MLB

• Giants receive $10–12M in posting fee
• But losing a cleanup hitter is a direct blow to their offense
• Murakami + Okamoto’s back-to-back exits → NPB slugger drain
• Successful Japanese hitters in MLB will only accelerate young players’ ambitions

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Conclusion: The Most Realistic Deal is “4 Years, $64–78M”—and New York Is the Main Stage

• Okamoto’s low K% + pull power gives him a strong translation profile
• The key MLB adjustment will be handling 94+ mph velocity
• Contract range: 4 yrs / $64–78M, with upside to $90M
• Favorites: Mets and Yankees
• Dark horses: Pirates and Tigers
• Expect resolution around the Winter Meetings

Where do you think he signs?

Next up: A full breakdown of Kona Takahashi’s MLB free-agent value.

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